Orange County, California

Housing Vacancy & Availability Analysis

2006 - 2020 | Research Paper Data

Key Statistics

1.13M
Housing Units (2020)[2]
5.98%
Peak Rental Vacancy (2009)[1]
3.00%
Lowest Rental Vacancy (2016)[8]
0.7%
Homeowner Vacancy (2020)[9]

Rental Vacancy Rate Trends[1][8]

Note: California consistently maintained vacancy rates 3-4 percentage points below national averages throughout this period, indicating a persistently tight housing market.[9]

Total Housing Units Growth[2][4]

Year-by-Year Data

Year Housing Units[4] Rental Vacancy[1] Homeowner Vacancy[1] Key Events[7][8]
2006 ~1,020,000 5.2% ~1.8% Housing bubble peak; heavy construction
2007 ~1,030,000 5.4% ~2.2% Foreclosure notices rising; bubble bursting
2008 ~1,040,000 5.7% ~3.0% Financial crisis; unprecedented homeowner vacancies
2009 ~1,045,000 5.98% (PEAK) ~2.8% Rental vacancy peaks; recession depths
2010 1,048,907[2] 5.6% ~2.4% 2010 Census; slow recovery begins
2011 ~1,055,000 5.3% ~2.1% Vacancies gradually returning to normal
2012 ~1,062,000 4.8% ~1.8% Market stabilization
2013 ~1,070,000 4.4% ~1.5% Recovery accelerating
2014 ~1,078,000 4.0% ~1.3% Tightening market
2015 ~1,086,000 3.5% ~1.1% Strong recovery
2016 ~1,094,000 3.00% (LOW) ~0.9% Post-crisis low for rental vacancy
2017 ~1,102,000 3.4% ~0.8% Market remains tight
2018 1,111,227[4] 4.2% ~0.8% Slight uptick in vacancies
2019 ~1,120,000 5.04%[3] ~0.8% ACS confirmed data
2020 1,129,785[2] 4.9% 0.7% (HISTORIC LOW)[9] 2020 Census; pandemic begins

California vs. National Comparison[5][1]

Year California[5] National[1] Difference
20065.5%9.7%-4.2%
20075.8%9.7%-3.9%
20086.1%10.0%-3.9%
20097.6%10.6% (PEAK)-3.0%
20107.5%10.2%-2.7%
20116.1%9.5%-3.4%
20125.2%8.7%-3.5%
20135.1%8.3%-3.2%
20144.6%7.6%-3.0%
20154.2%7.1%-2.9%
20163.6% (LOW)6.9%-3.3%
20173.8%7.2%-3.4%
20184.0%7.0%-3.0%
20194.1%6.8%-2.7%
20204.0%6.5%-2.5%

Census Year Comparison (2010 vs 2020)[2][6]

+7.7%
Housing Unit Growth
+7.9%
Occupied Unit Growth
-0.2%
Vacancy Rate Change
+0.7%
Renter Share Increase
Metric 2010 Census[2] 2020 Census[2] Change
Total Housing Units 1,048,907 1,129,785 +80,878 (+7.7%)
Occupied Units 995,560 1,074,333 +78,773 (+7.9%)
Vacant Units 53,347 (5.1%) 55,452 (4.9%) +2,105 (+3.9%)
Owner-Occupied 56.8% 56.1% -0.7%
Renter-Occupied 43.2% 43.9% +0.7%

Homes Listed for Sale (Housing Availability)[7][13]

Year Homes Listed for Sale Months of Supply Data Source
2006 ~15,000 ~7 months Estimated from C.A.R. trend data
2007 17,250[7] 9 months[13] OC Register (June 2007 - confirmed)
2008 ~18,000-20,000 ~15 months[13] Estimated; CA statewide UII peaked
2009 ~14,000 ~5 months Estimated; foreclosures clearing inventory
2010 ~12,000 ~5 months Estimated from recovery trend
2011 ~11,000 ~4 months Estimated from recovery trend
2012 ~9,000 ~3.5 months Estimated; "not enough inventory"[14]
2013 ~8,000 ~3 months Estimated from tightening trend
2014 ~7,500 ~3 months Estimated from tightening trend
2015 ~7,000 ~2.5 months Estimated from tightening trend
2016 ~6,500 ~2 months FRED data begins mid-2016
2017 5,936[7] ~2 months[7] OC Register (June 2017 - confirmed)
2018 ~6,200 ~2 months FRED ACTLISCOU6059 data
2019 ~5,500 ~2 months FRED ACTLISCOU6059 data
2020 ~4,500 ~1.5 months FRED data; pandemic impact begins

Data Limitations: Comprehensive year-by-year inventory data is limited. FRED/Realtor.com data begins July 2016. Pre-2016 figures are estimated based on California Association of Realtors Unsold Inventory Index trends, OC Register reporting, and market analysis. Confirmed data points are marked with citations. For exact historical figures, contact C.A.R. or access CoreLogic/ATTOM archives.

Foreclosure Impact[7]

Metric June 2007[7] Peak Crisis (~2009)[8] June 2017[7]
Default Notices 1,144 ~3,500/month 310
Actual Foreclosures 281 ~1,500/month 21
Foreclosed Properties Available 463 ~5,000+ 27
Homes Listed for Sale 17,250 ~20,000+ 5,936
Distressed Sales % 13% ~50% <5%

Historical Timeline

2006-2008: The Bubble Bursts

Housing construction peaked with 209,000 permits statewide in 2005.[11] By 2008, permits fell below 50,000/year. Homeowner vacancy hit unprecedented 3% (normally ~1.2%).[9] Easy credit and predatory lending created artificial demand.

2009-2011: Crisis Depths

Orange County rental vacancy peaked at 5.98% (2009).[1] Heavy vacancies blighted neighborhoods and provoked crime.[8] Foreclosures drove much of the vacancy. California median home price dropped 59% from peak.[7]

2012-2016: Recovery

Vacancy rates steadily declined. Rental vacancy hit post-crisis low of 3.00% (2016).[8] Limited new construction kept supply tight. Population growth outpaced housing production.[11]

2017-2020: Tight Market

Homeowner vacancy dropped to 0.7% (2020) - lowest since Census tracking began in 1980s.[9] Demand outpaced rental construction. Orange County became one of nation's tightest housing markets.[12]

Bibliography

Primary Sources (Government Data)

Secondary Sources (Analysis & Reporting)